NFL Week 2 DFS – Big Play Potential

NFL Week 2 DFS Big Play Potential
Total number of plays allowed over 20 yards.
NFL Week 2 DFS Big Play Potential
Number of yards that resulted from these big plays.

NFL Week 2 DFS – Teams to Target

We’ll toss out the Jets as they played last night but it’s fair to say they lived up to the charts above as a defense you can pick on.  The above charts are inclusive of passing and rushing and we’ll break each down a bit further to see if we can identify some nice matchups for each.

NFL Week 2 Passing – Teams to Target

Atlanta Falcons – They face an Oakland Raiders team that allowed 6 plays for over 20 yards but amassed the most yards from those plays. While the above chart includes rushing and passing plays, all 6 of Oakland’s plays for over 20 yards were passing plays. This is obviously skewed a bit from the 98 yard bomb to Cooks but with Sanu and Jones as potential WR targets, it’s fair to say that same threat exists for big plays in this game. Not to mention the pass catching back potential in this game for PPR sites.

Minnesota Vikings – You’re probably confused right now and that’s okay but Green Bay did allow 6 plays for over 20 yards that had a total of 171 yards. Now yes, we have to take into account they were facing Bortles and company so the big play potential is limited with a hurting Vikings offense but Stefon Diggs is a legit contender and will be someone that has the ability to make some big plays.  For GPP, it would be a very sneaky spot to grab a low owned WR with 20+ fantasy point upside.  Diggs had 7 catches on 9 targets in week 1 for 103 yards.

New York Giants*gasp* Are you surprised? You’re probably hearing this on every site you go to. Odell Beckham will be the chalk play but for good reason. He had a huge game last year against a New Orleans Saints defense and the secondary is still pretty abysmal. The Saints allowed 6 passing plays over 20 yards for a grand total of 178 yards and Eli Manning has one of the best matchups he’s had in a while.  I don’t care how highly owned Beckham is because his upside is 30+ in this matchup. Lock him in for cash and move on.

Other Notables to Target for Passing:  Oakland Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, Tennessee Titans

NFL Week 2 Rushing – Teams to Target

We’ll be ignoring the Saints defensive stats since Jalen Richard broke a play for 75 yards and they only allowed 1 other rush for 10 yards.

San Francisco 49ers – It is weird to say target the Carolina Panthers and it’s not something we’re doing in cash but Hyde gave us high hopes and we saw the kind of night that CJ Anderson was allowed to have against this Panthers defense.  It’s something we have to pay attention to.  The Panthers allowed 5 plays for over 10 yards on the ground for a total of 89 yards.

Chicago Bears – Aside from the fact that Jeremy Langford looks like he will be the bell cow based on being in on 96% of the snaps, the Philadelphia Eagles allowed 5 rushing plays over 10 yards for a total of 74 yards in week 1. Langford is getting the RZ rush attempts and he’s a pass catching back which makes him a great bargain with very nice upside for week 2 in PPR as well.

Pittsburgh Steelers – They are facing a Cincinnati Bengals team that allowed 5 rushes for over 10 yards for a total of 69 yards. We saw what DeAngelo Williams is capable of and he’s clearly the #1 guy while Le’Veon Bell is out.  You could make a case for the Steelers WR’s as well and I wouldn’t argue with you but I like going back to D Will here in week 2 and letting him bang it out on the ground.

Other Notables to Target for Rushing:  Washington Redskins, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks

NFL Week 2 DFS Summary

Another key thing to remember is it’s only been one week and sample sizes are very small and NFL is very matchup based. Running these charts in week 10 will be much more accurate but it’a starting point. As with most things in DFS, this is one way to analyze the information we have available to help us make decisions.  There are plenty of other metrics you should take into consideration too.

Anyone you think I left off that should be included?  Let me know in the comments or on Twitter.

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