Let’s jump right in and talk about my top FanDuel QB picks of the week for the Sunday main slate. I’ll go over my favorite plays for QB: Top Tier, Middle of the Road and Punt Plays.
I won’t be doing Kicker or Defense. For Kicker look at teams who make it to opponent side of the field a lot but have a low TD % and match it up with teams that allow opponents on their side a lot. I really wish FanDuel would get rid of kickers and go with a Flex. Maybe I’ll switch to DK one day, but until then…
Top Tier ($8,500 +)
Tom Brady $8,700 – Probably one of the highest owned plays despite his price for a number of reasons. Potentially the only QB on the main slate over 10%. You could probably argue him as a potential fade candidate. I’m not sure I can fade him though because of the game script I’ve convinced myself of which is Brady just coming out guns blazing and slinging the ball all over creation.
- He’s Tom Brady
- First game back from suspension
- He’s Tom Brady
- It’s Cleveland
- He’s Tom Brady
If Tannehill was able to get 343 yards and 3 TDs in the air, we have to feel pretty good about what Brady and company can accomplish. We’re talking about a 30 point plus ceiling here. I would imagine there will be no holding back or easing up in his first game back.
Ben Roethlisberger $8,600 – The easiest pivot from Tom Brady there is on this slate. Almost exactly the same cost with the same upside and a huge dip in ownership. We should almost be thankful Tom Brady is free and playing Cleveland because it’s not often you’ll be able to roster a QB who just scored you 30 plus points on FD the following week with such low ownership but here we are.
Middle of the Road ($7,000 to $8,500)
Derek Carr $8,100 – Last week was a mighty fine performance by Carr with 3 TDs to Crabtree. The raiders are looking good offensively this year and with recent news of Verrett being out for the rest of the season, this secondary of the Chargers just got a whole lot softer. There’s certainly 3+ TD upside in this game but we have the worry of stolen TDs by the running game. 3 of 4 games, there were 350 plus yards thrown by QBs facing the Chargers and that was with one of the best corners on the field. Hard to imagine that doesn’t become the norm moving forward.
Update: Perhaps the running game stealing TDs is less of a threat with Murray out.
Punt Plays ( $7,000 and below)
If you’re playing Draft Kings it’s hard to not plug in Fitzpatrick and move along. At $5,100 on there, he’s a great deal and will probably be low owned. On FanDuel his price is $6,900 and it’s a bit harder to like him. On DK you get the bonus for 300 yards passing and Steelers have allowed 300+ yards passing on average. But this article isn’t focused on DK so let’s stop drooling over that price point and move along.
Brian Hoyer $6,000 – The Colts have allowed just under 300 passing yards per game by opposing teams at 296 yards. Not to mention they have chosen to not take a bye week after their London game. That’s a lot of traveling (#JetLagIsReal… just ask the Raiders with east coast teams). In any event, Hoyer probably has an uphill battle with losing his target monster this week Kevin White but gotta love the connection he has with Miller and expect Eddie Royal to do some work. While Hoyer has a floor of 10, he could also very likely get us 3x + on his salary under 4% ownership.