NFL Week 6 DFS FanDuel Complete Breakdown

Covered below are all the games in the main FanDuel slate. I’ll go over my favorite plays for each game and the format I like them in. In the header for each game, I’ll post the vegas lines at the time of doing my research. You should understand that these may change and what the changes mean in terms of how it can impact the game script. If you’re not sure, tweet me. This post will be updated as I research each game.

I use NFLSavant.com for yardage stats. Plays sometimes include penalty yards to give the full impact of what they allow during a game. If a team is giving up 50 yards a game from penalties, that positively impacts potential scoring opportunities and while those yards aren’t given fantasy points to the offensive player, it does put them in a position to potentially score more.

For targets, carries and snap information I use Daily Roto.

NFL Week 6 DFS Analysis

Elite Plays

Secondary Plays Only

Research in Progress

Simply click the row for the game you want and it will expand my awesome hot taeks.

1 PM Games

49ers (18.2) @ Bills (25.75)2 elite plays

49ers at Bills Game Script

Buffalo is 7.5 point favorites over a San Francisco team that is struggling to find its true self. The Blaine Gabbert experiment looks to be over and we’re back to Kaepernick at QB and we may finally get to see what a Chip Kelly style offense can truly be like in the pros. Or more realistically, we see more disaster much like a fish out of water flopping on the ground, grasping its last breath at life. I’m not a believer in Kaep but the game script does provide some nice opportunity for him but it also could put Buffalo in a really good spot for the running game and defensively.

I foresee Buffalo taking the lead in this one and never really relinquishing that lead. Not a big fan of the Buffalo passing game in this one and I see them controlling most of the game flow with the run game. It does put an interesting twist for Kaep and Kerley in terms of opportunity but it’s hard to say for sure who Kaep will use as his go to with it being his first week but Kerley has been the go to guy thus far and it’s hard to think that would change completely with the matchup he’ll get vs Robey this week.

Elite Plays

LeSean McCoy – $8,200 – Playable in all formats. He’ll be high owned in GPPs but this is a case where I think I’m just going to over expose myself to the field because the matchup looks that good. Aside from the first week vs the Rams, the 49ers have allowed an average of 168.5 ypg on the ground. McCoy is averaging 17 carries per game and over 4 targets the first 5 weeks. He is getting just over 80% of the snaps as well and is as much of a bell cow that you can ask for.

Buffalo Defense – $4,800 – Probably THE defense for cash here but you could make a case for fading in GPPs due to ownership. There’s a good chance of a couple sacks and some forced turnovers with upside for TDs.

Players of Interest

Tyrod Taylor – $7,800 – I think it’d be irresponsible for me to not talk about Tyrod here. I don’t see him as an elite play but he could easily scramble in for a rushing TD and get you around 250 yards in the air so at his price point, he’s in play potentially for cash. I don’t love him for getting it done in the air but the rushing upside he brings makes him viable in cash for me but it’s hard to look past some other matchups if we’re going middle of the road.

Colin Kaepernick – $6,400 – You can play him in GPP if you have a bunch of lineups. I would say maybe 1 lineup amongst many (like at least 25 lineups per 1 Kaepernick if not more) if you wanted to take a risk. He won’t be highly owned but will probably be higher than he should be because he’s a shiny new toy in DFS and relatively cheap. If you throw out the Pats game, the Bills have allowed on average over 300 yards per game in the air and Kaep is a threat to run on the ground giving nice upside there.

Carlos Hyde – $7,300 – It seems that Hyde is getting involved whether San Fran is ahead or behind. He has 6 rushing TDs on the year and only 1 game so far where he didn’t find the endzone. It looks like Chip is determined to establish the run but if Hyde doesn’t find himself having a good first half, his upside is likely limited. He did have a surge of targets in week 5 so it will be interesting to keep an eye on that and see where it goes. If he gets a lot of targets again, his value could rise for rest of season with San Fran likely passing the ball a lot coming from behind this year. I would say GPP only but I think there is better value and opportunity elsewhere on the slate.

Jeremy Kerley – $5,800 – It’s crazy to think Kerley is fantasy relevant but he’s received over 10 targets per game past couple. Thought a lot is up in the air with Kaep coming into the mix but one can only hope he’ll rely on who has been performing but we’ve seen in other teams that to not always be the case. This makes Kerley a GPP play only and I would say to go ahead and do it on the 1 lineup you use Kaep and make that your exposure and keep it to a real minimum if you do it. Not expecting a lot but if they do happen to go off together, you could benefit nicely not only from the offensive production but what it will do to the high ownership of Bills defense.

Rams (20.5) @ Lions (23.5)1 elite play

Rams @ Lions Game Script

The Lions are a 3.5 point favorite at home vs a Rams team that we aren’t sure what’s going on yet. They have no true leaders in the passing game and Keenum behind center isn’t something we can ever feel comfortable with. The biggest question mark on this game for me is how Forsett will fit into the offense and how big of a role he’s going to have being newly signed. It’s really tough to go into this with confidence that he’ll be a major contributor in terms of fantasy production but he does bring down the viability of Theo Riddick as well. Sticking to the passing game for the Lions is going to be the best bet and we can just hope that the Rams are able to keep it competitive enough to keep Stafford throwing the ball to take advantage of the mismatches.

The Rams have been all over the place in passing yards but we’ve seen as high as 412 yards in the air from Jameis Winston so the ceiling is certainly there for a monstrous game from Stafford and his receivers. Det will likely be lower owned due to the several other games on the slate with such high point totals. I can’t play Tate yet until I see an increase in snaps or targets and right now he’s not showing either despite the coach saying he’s due for a big game.

Elite Plays

Marvin Jones $7,700 – His ownership should be back down to around 7% in most tournaments but his matchup is pretty good. While he will face off against Gaines a good bit of the time, he also lines up as a RWR 41% of the time which will give him Troy Hill who rates out pretty poorly for CBs (2nd worst). Marvin is playing the most snaps of any DET offensive player and gets 1.7 FP per target. Ebron’s return may actually help Jones as he was seeing more targets with Ebron in the game than out. Marvin is playable in all formats for me and while we may not see a 35 point performance again he should be in a good spot to get 6 to 8 catches for over 100 yards with a TD.

Secondary Plays

Matthew Stafford $8,000 – Stafford has some extreme upside tonight and pairing him up with Marvin Jones feels very good this week. He’s got 300+ yard upside with 3 TD potential and really like him in GPPs. There’s probably better options for cash games because of pricing.

Theo Riddick $6,600 or Justin Forsett $4,900 – I can’t play out what’s going to happen here but I think one of these guys is potentially in for a nice game. I’m airing on the side of caution and probably not playing Forsett until I see how he’s utilized but you could make the case here for him as a punt option at RB who could be used to run it in. Riddick has more value on full PPR sites like DK due to the amount of targets he regularly sees.

Update: Riddick is out which makes Forsett a potential GPP option to carry a nice workload but another interesting pivot could be Golden Tate who was in the backfield and could see extra targets. The other option here would be some increase targets for Golden Tate.

Todd Gurley $7,900 – Aside from IND only getting 62 yards on the ground (was a shootout) every other team has rushed for over 100 yards on the season vs the Lions. This gives Gurley some nice yardage. The only thing keeping Gurley from an elite play for me is the fact that no rushing TDs have happened vs the DET defense. Gurley does have 3 TDs this year on the ground so it’s possible Gurley is the first to make this happen but the lack of success from other teams puts him as a secondary play for me and I’d much rather target other RBs in his price range.

Browns (18.2) @ Titans (25.75)2 elite plays

Browns at Titans Game Script

Cleveland remains the only team without a win in the NFL. I don’t think that changes this week and while CLE tries to stay in the game, they never seem to be able to seal the deal. I don’t think this one will be that close and I would imagine them playing from behind most of the game.

They’re going to have a hard time containing Mariota from scrambling, Murray from beating them up on the ground and just when they have that figured out, here comes a TD to Walker over the middle of the field on a play action.

Elite Plays

No shocker here but all elite plays are on the Titans side of the ball.

DeMarco Murray $8,800 – Murray has been one of the most reliable backs in fantasy this year. I would say Murray is more of a cash play than GPP because of his price point making it hard for him to surpass 3X value and a real possibility of just 2x. He’s been a bell cow past couple weeks with over 50 carries and 8 targets in 2 games. Only Baltimore didn’t get in the endzone on the ground vs the Browns this year and that’s because they chose to stop running the ball with West for some damn reason (yeah, so I might be a little salty, so what?).

Delanie Walker $6,700 – Walker isn’t back up to 70%+ snaps since being out week 3 but he did increase from 53% to 58% from week 4 to 5. We can only hope he gets back to being on the field more as he scores the 2nd most FP per snap after DeMarco Murray and this matchup is prime for the taking. Delanie is playable in all formats and should be a top TE for week 6.

Secondary Plays

I don’t think I’m listing any Browns players here either. You could make a case for Pryor but I just think there’s better places to go.

Marcus Mariota $7,600 – A GPP option here with Mariota. He’s got rushing upside to run one in and get 50 yards in the process but we’ve seen how low his lows can be even against the easier passing defensive teams like the Raiders.

Eagles (23.5) @ Redskins (21)1 elite play

Eagles at Redskins Game Script

This game only has the Eagles as a 2.5 point favorite and I’m not sure why it’s not higher. The Redskins are sitting at 21 points and after reviewing the game stats for the Eagles, I just don’t know how that’s going to happen. The eagles are allowing on average under 60 yards per game on the ground and under 250 yards in the air. With Reed in potential concussion protocol, this Redskins offense could be in for a world of hurt. I can easily see Eagles getting the lead early and never relinquishing the lead.

Elite Plays

Eagles Defense $4,500 – Eagles are in a great spot here defensively and normally you’d probably see their ownership be higher but the Bills defense should suck away some of that ownership and I absolutely love the matchup here. If I’m not going Bills on my teams, I will be using Eagles where I need to save a couple hundred bucks.

Secondary Plays

Jordan Matthews $6,700 – Josh Norman isn’t scaring me off of Matthews here but I’m imagining it will for most. His price point is pretty optimal here. The only reason he’s secondary and not elite is due to lack of recent targets but he has the highest snap count of any Eagle and is one of the most talented guys on the field. Norman only covers the slot 8% of the time and isn’t likely to shadow Matthews as he lines up in the slot 63% of the time. I wouldn’t be surprised if that % increases based on Norman either.

Special note, I love the running game here, I just don’t have faith in Ryan Mathews. His snap count is abysmal and that’s the highest correlation to fantasy points for a running back. It’s very possible he could have a breakout game here against a Redskins defense that allows the ball to be ran all over them. This could be a big timeshare here and I think there are better options to use at RB.

Update: With Reed out for Sunday, Niles Paul becomes very intriguing option for a punt option at TE.

Bengals (19.2) @ Patriots (27.75)2 elite plays

Bengals at Patriots Game Script

Patriots are one of the biggest favorites of the day but we saw last week that Brady just aired it out regardless of the safe victory. Blount only in for 39% of the snaps. It’s always hard to guess the gameplan of Belichick and the Bengals have allowed some decent yardage on the ground when facing teams with a solid rushing attack. I’m going to be leaning towards passing game on both sides of the ball here just because of the pure unknown usage rates for backs on both sides.

Elite Plays

Brandon LaFell $5,300 – Revenge narrative? It’s not often you get a WR who just grabbed two TD’s the previous week and will be able to get him again with likely less than 3% ownership. Lafell is a 100% GPP play but a nice one. Patriots love to take away the top option. For the Bengals that means AJ Green which leaves Lafell to pick up where he left off. He has outsnapped all offensive players this year including Green and 2nd in targets behind Green with 11 last week.

Rob Gronkowski $8,400 – Let everyone else go to Bennett. If you played him last week, congrats. But this is a prime example to not chase points where most people will because his price didn’t come up after that monster 3 TD game but the numbers aren’t sustainable. He caught 3 TDs off of 8 targets but a season low of only 69% of snaps while Gronk came in for 81% of the snaps and got 7 targets himself. Bennett is no longer a secret and is very unlikely to have a 3 TD game again while you can get the better player overall at same ownership. Keep an eye on his status though as there were reports he missed practice due to illness.

Secondary Plays

Chris Hogan $5,600 – he had his lowest snap count week 5 but it looks like that was due to some in game injury where they were checking him for concussion before returning. Hogan brings great salary cap relief while also providing potential upside of 100+ yards with a TD for potentially below 1% ownership for your GPP lineup.

Ravens (20.2) @ Giants (23.25)1 elite play

Ravens at Giants Game Script

The Ravens came out strong first few weeks with a stellar defensive performance vs the Bills but then struggled to barely get by the Jags and then suffered first loss vs Oakland. It’s hard to know exactly what’s happening with them and where they are in terms of talent. Losing Steve Smith won’t make it any easier and we’ll have to see if they abandon the run like they did last week. Terrance West was having an awesome day but they just seemed to stop giving him the ball.

In a game that is likely going to be played behind for them, you can bet the passing game should be busy but no one stands out as an elite play on the Ravens side but I do love a particular Giants WR for this game to explode. This game could sneak into a shootout the same way that Bal and Oak did.

Elite Plays

Odell Beckham $8,300 – His price is still very low compared to where he was most of the year last year. His first four weeks started off slow (just like last year) and he finally got in the endzone with a toe tapping catch last week. He has an amazing matchup this week vs Baltimore and we have an opportunity to get him under 5% ownership at this price point. He’s going to have a 150 yard and 2 TD game at some point and you’ll want some exposure on him every week until he does. Especially in the circumstances of low price and low ownership on a player who has a top 5 WR upside every week.

Secondary Plays

Crocket Gillmore $4,900 – I LOVE Gillmore for GPPs. When Smith got banged up last week, we saw Gillmore snap count increase up to almost 70% and also snagged 7 targets. Most people will be going to Pitta here but it was Gillmore that was getting the RZ targets last week, not Pitta. Very sneaky GPP play with Smith out in week 6.

Mike Wallace $6,400 – He’s been the highest targeted guy on the Ravens overall and that should probably continue with Smith’s absence. He’s very reliant on a deep ball for getting his value and thus why he’s a secondary play for me. He should only be utilized in GPPs.

Panthers (28) @ Saints (25)4 elite plays

Panthers at Saints Game Script

This game is exciting in terms of offensive options. There’s a lot you could look at here as it should be a back and forth battle with a lot of fantasy production from all. Plenty of rushing, passing and fun times in the highest over under game of the slate.

There isn’t anyone that doesn’t have the upside in this game I would say so let’s take a look at some of the best options from the game. Obviously not everyone in this game can all go off equally but you’ll want exposure in some form. I try to highlight the best chances of that with the elite plays and possible blow ups in secondary plays.

Elite Plays

Cam Newton $8,900 – Cam was cleared to play and his floor vs NO is very nice. He’s a great cash play but also has GPP upside and there’s plenty of low cost WR options to make it work. He’s got rushing potential and we all know how much of a joke that Saints defense is.

Jonathan Stewart $6,300 – I wouldn’t normally call a back that’s back from injury on his first week back as an elite play but it’s the highest scoring game of the slate and he’s on the favorite team facing a defense that allows massive points to running backs. The most of any team in fact. We’ll have to monitor his health because Artis-Payne could be a stellar pivot if he suffers a set back.

Kelvin Benjamin $7,800 – his snaps are up his targets are consistent and there’s going to be a lot of action in this game and he’s the clear #1 guy on the Panthers. There’s a good chance he’ll be shadowed but that shouldn’t matter much. He’s by far the superior talent compared to the Saints secondary. Due to ownership, it may be a play more suited for cash.

Michael Thomas $5,400 – I love Thomas more than anyone else in this game. His snap counts and targets are rising and Brees confidence in this young wideout are growing with every play. He’ll be decently owned but I think we can look past the ownership due to his price point. He’s cheaper than both his teammates but has the same upside as both of them but should be lower owned of them. He’s probably more of a GPP play but I wouldn’t hate him in cash.

Secondary Plays

Drew Brees $8,500 – He’s probably going to be playing from behind a good bit of this game or at least a back and forth shoot out. 300+ with 3 TDs doesn’t feel like it’s too hard for him to achieve against this secondary and he’s been very good playing at home. Probably would stick to him in GPPs as he definitely has the upside for a GPP. His ownership will probably be in the teens so you’re not going to gain much of an edge with Brees in terms of ownership but he’s a solid play with nice upside.

Mark Ingram $6,700 – When he’s in the game he’s being utilized and he’s no longer just a rushing back, he’s getting targets pretty consistently as well. In his last game he had 18 carries and 7 targets. It’s reassuring to know if the Saints are passing the ball a lot that Ingram will still be part of the offense no matter what. Last week he only had 3.1 ypc. We can feel comfortable knowing that should be closer to 5 more often than not so as long as his volume continues, we should see nice results. Probably more suitable for GPP than cash.

Greg Olsen $8,100 – I feel like I shouldn’t even have to tell you Olsen is always in play. He’s one of the best TE in the league and used like a WR. I like some of the other weapons in this game for the Panthers slightly more but Olsen is always in play. It’s a situation where you could likely pay up to be contrarian due to the lower priced options, it should help keep his ownership down but will still probably be 10 to 15%.

Steelers (27.2) @ Dolphins (19.75)2 elite plays

Steelers at Dolphins Game Script

Big Ben has struggled on the road in general but this Miami defense is soft. Coates looks like he’s unlikely going to play based on his hand injury which means you’ll have to get lucky picking a player on the Steelers offense other than Brown and Bell on who will explode.

Bell is going to get a ton of work on the ground and even if Miami upsets Pittsburgh, Bell is heavily used in the passing game. Expect Landry to be involved a lot while fighting from a deficit the entire game.

Elite Plays

LeVeon Bell $9,300 – He’s expensive but rightfully so. He could easily find the endzone twice with over 150 total yards which is the 3x we’re looking for. If you go with Bell, you’re obviously looking to save at other spots. Bell is viable in all formats.

Jarvis Landry $6,900 – Coming off a very bad week, you are probably getting him at very low ownership with very nice upside against the Steelers. Landry was only targeted 3 times last week. The 3 games previously he had 10 or more targets. I love Landry in GPPs as Miami will likely be playing from behind most of the game which means a lot of targets and opportunity.

Secondary Plays

Ben Roethlisberger $8,700 – I like Ben but at his price point, I think I’d rather go other places here. I see them winning the game more on the ground than in the air but there will be some to go around, just not sure if there’s enough for me to get what I need from him for GPPs. I think there’s better options for cash but he’s definitely in play.

Antonio Brown $9,700 – Of course Brown is in play. He’s a play every week. The question becomes is he worth his salary. There’s probably better options in terms of point per dollar cost but Brown’s floor is so nice that it’s always tempting to get him in your lineups. You won’t lose because of Brown this week and he could easily put up 20+ points. At his price thought, we need 30+ to justify paying up.

Jaguars (22.2) @ Bears (24.75)1 elite play

Jaguars at Bears Game Script

I’ve gone back and forth on whether the Bears will have a passing game in this game or not. Jacksonville has done a decent job preventing opposing teams from passing on them. Jeffrey will likely be shadowed by Ramsey and I think for them to win this game, they have to get it done on the ground.

Elite Plays

Fading Meredith – this is an elite play for GPPs. He’s going to be one of the highest owned WR’s but I’m not sold that he’s such a lock for points this week. His price is still low and there’s this false feeling that the Jags allow a ton of yards in the air… they don’t. It’s barely over 200 yards in the air and the matchup for Meredith isn’t that great. Michael Thomas is a much better GPP play here.

Secondary Plays

Jordan Howard $7,700 – His price has finally caught up a little bit with his production. He’s still a good value but no longer an elite or must play. I like Howard the most out of all the players in this game. He gets targets, the carries and a big part of the Bears offense.

4 PM Games

Chiefs (23.5) @ Raiders (23.5)1 elite play

Chiefs at Raiders Game Script

The Raiders (my team I root for so try to separate my bias if you see any) are off to a 4 – 1 start for the first time since their Super Bowl appearance but that’s mainly due to their offense as their defense has been absolutely deplorable. I would expect most Raiders games to be shoot outs.

The wind looks like it’s going to settle down a little bit from earlier forecasts but that shouldn’t impact Alex Smith as they’ve only completed 4 deep passes for 115 yards and over 100 plays for close to 900 yards. With Murray out for Oakland, the running game is up in the air again and you could see any number of guys reaching pay dirt if they run the ball in the RZ.

Elite Plays

Alex Smith $6,800 – This is more of the opponent than the QB himself. Oakland has one of the worst defenses statistically allowing 3 QBs to reach right near or surpass 400 yards passing. Not expecting 400 yards but 300 feels like a nice floor with 2 TDs. Smith is playable in all formats and gives nice salary cap relief to fit in other studs.

Secondary Plays

Chris Conley $4,600 – A lot of people will be on Maclin and he’s a decent play and has some potential. The sneaky, very low owned option in this game would be Conley. His snaps are rising as well as his targets and he’s almost min price with 20 point upside. Would certainly be a GPP play only but someone you could get in for very low ownership to afford some of the bigger guys. A Smith Conley stack would probably be under 5% ownership combined with 45 to 55 point upside.

Falcons (19.5) @ Seahawks (26)1 elite play

Falcons at Seahwawks Game Script

Probably one of the most surprising events this year has been the Falcons resurgence as a contender. They started off a bit shaky but have fine tuned their offense to be able to compete in any format. I’m not sure I believe the spread listed above and think this will be a lot closer than Vegas thinks.

Elite Plays

Jimmy Graham $6,900 – Hurry guys, it won’t be too long before everyone will be on the Graham train. He’s posted over 100 yards in his last two games and this game doesn’t look to be any different. ATL has allowed massive points to TEs and they’re utilizing Graham as a receiving option more and more lately. He’ll be decently owned but shouldn’t be much higher than 10% in most GPPs but has 20+ point upside at a price point that hasn’t yet caught up to him. He’s playable in all formats.

Secondary Plays

Russell Wilson $8,400 – Great GPP option for a QB who has rushing upside but should also throw for a decent amount of yards today. I’m not sold on Michael at RB and thing SEA gets this done through the air and the legs of Russell Wilson. Atlanta has allowed some decent QB stats this season and Russell certainly has the ability to follow that as a sneaky QB option in GPPs.

Doug Baldwin $7,600 – A lot of people are all over Lockett but I’m not buying it. If anyone is going to excel today in this matchup, it’s gotta be Graham and Baldwin for me. I would bet between these two, that they get over 60% of the passing yards thrown out today. If you wanted to get really creative for a very large GPP you could put Baldwin and Graham in a stack with Wilson and see what happens. I would only do that if I had a bunch of lineups going but it’s something I wouldn’t mind doing at all.

I’m on team fade ATL for GPPs but I wouldn’t be shocked if someone on the team had a big day. I just don’t know who it would be and I’m willing to not take the chance with so many other good options today.

Cowboys (21.8) @ Packers (25.75)in progress

Research in progress…

Sunday Night Football

Colts (21.5) @ Texans (24.5)in progress

Research in progress…

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