Covered below are all the games in the main FanDuel slate for Week 7 (and the Sunday morning game by request). I’ll go over my favorite plays for each game and the format I like them in. In the header for each game, I’ll post the vegas lines at the time of doing my research. You should understand that these may change and what the changes mean in terms of how it can impact the game script. If you’re not sure, tweet me. This post will be updated as I research each game.
I use NFLSavant.com for yardage stats. Plays sometimes include penalty yards to give the full impact of what they allow during a game. If a team is giving up 50 yards a game from penalties, that positively impacts potential scoring opportunities and while those yards aren’t given fantasy points to the offensive player, it does put them in a position to potentially score more.
For targets, carries and snap information I am using RotoWire’s new team pages.
NFL Week 7 DFS Analysis – 12 games
Secondary Plays Only
Research in Progress
9:30 AM London Game
Giants (23) @ Rams (20.5)1 elite play
Giants at Rams Game Script
The game is in London so home road splits don’t necessarily apply here. As though we could guess what the hell the Rams are going to do this week anyways.
Both these teams are trying to find their way this season. I believe the Giants will continue clicking and Eli finds himself with another 300+ and 3 TD game here with the Rams constantly buzzing around trying to keep this one close.
Odell Beckham $8,600 – Keep an eye on the secondary of the Rams and see if they have their main guys back. If they don’t, Beckham’s price is still way too low compared to what he can do (as seen by last week). The thing that concerns me the most is ownership after a big week. If you’re playing the Sun – Mon slate, you’re likely playing it for this game vs the Texans and Broncos which will inflate his ownership but with a full slate of games, it’s probably okay.
Eli Manning $7,700 – As stated above in the game script, I think Eli will continue his success in this matchup and get 300+ and 3 TDs. I like stacking Eli and OBJ because we could reap huge rewards we saw last week, the concern is ownership and also the very low floors of both players which make them a GPP option only for me.
1 PM Games
Vikings (21.2) @ Eagles (18.75)1 secondary
Vikings at Eagles Game Script
This could be a very slow and tedious game. The most exciting in this game could happen on a special teams or defensive play.
Maybe the kickers will get a lot of exercise but we don’t cover kickers in this break down.
Jerick McKinnon $6,500 – I’m somewhat interested in McKinnon here solely for the opportunity he has been given the past few games with 18 carries over the last 3 and coming off a bye and seeing what Matt Jones was able to accomplish. Far from an elite play but certainly intriguing at his price point for a GPP play.
Saints (21.8) @ Chiefs (28.25)3 elite plays
Saints at Chiefs Game Script
Chiefs are favored by 7 points and have a team total from vegas that is very high for their offensive production. That’s because they’re playing the Saints and the Saints are on the road which usually doesn’t lead to good things on the Saints side of the ball offensively. At least in recent years.
Smith and company struggled to do anything in the air vs the Raiders in Week 6 with the highest amount of targets going to Conley at just 4. I’d like to think Reid will realize just how bad the Saints defense is and try to air this out a little bit more.
Alex Smith $7,2000 – It’s hard to not list a QB facing the saints defense as elite. Smith has historically never been known as a high producing fantasy QB. He’s strictly a GPP play and with all the other value on the slate with RB injuries, you probably can go up a little bit with no problem which means Smith will potentially be lower owned than he would have been. Fantasy Labs has him predicted 9 – 12 but I expect that to go down with all the other value popping up. Saints give opposing QBs a +/- of 7.2 on top of projected points so his ceiling is certainly there for 300 yards and 2 or 3 TDs and he has some rushing TD upside potential to get us that coveted 3x value and then some.
Jeremy Maclin $6,800 – I went back and forth on here with Maclin and Conley but I just gotta go with the #1 here in this situation vs the Saints. Maclin’s price is decent and there’s so much other value that with him, Smith and two cheap RB options, you’re fitting in other top WRs with hi. This is one of those 140 yard with 1 or 2 TD upside type games here.
Michael Thomas $5,700 – If you pay up at other spots and need to save at WR, I love Michael Thomas. He’s quietly having a very good past 3 weeks with a TD in the last 3 games and hitting 3x in 2 of 3. I don’t mind him in GPPs but not sure you have to do this in cash games with where I would recommend going at RB.
Travis Kelce $6,300 – I think there’s better options here but Kelce is always a nice mid tier option with upside and when facing the Saints, that is slightly elevated.
Drew Brees $8,500 – Any game that shows Brees playing from behind brings a lot of pass opportunities. He has a lot of weapons he can throw too which makes it difficult regardless of the defense to cover all of them. At his price, he’s a GPP play simply because there are better options for cash games if we’re going to up this high in salary.
Redskins (23.8) @ Lions (24.75)1 elite play
Redskins at Lions Game Script
Matt Jones $6,700 – Okay before you close the browser hear me out. He’s getting the carries and he’s getting it done vs inferior rush defenses. The Lions have allowed 100+ rushing yards 4 out of 6 games and Jones has broke 100 2 of the last 3 games and has over 18 touches average during those 3 games. He is a very sneaky, under the radar play with 20+ point upside. Only a GPP play but one I like a lot and not just because I’m a Gator fan.
Jamison Crowder $6,200 – The only thing keeping Jamison from being an elite play is the lack of targets. They’re down quite a bit but we’ve seen how high they can get. If DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed is out, you can bet Crowder will be picking up the slack on the receiving side and could be setup for a nice game. GPP only.
Justin Forsett $5,200 – He only played 12 snaps last week but he joined the team just a few days before the game. If Riddick and Washington stay out for Week 7, Forsett will probably have a much bigger role after a full week of practice. Washington has allowed over 100 yards on average on the ground and the 2 games where they prevented 100 yards, the teams were 5 and 3 yards away. The potential for a huge game is here, the question will be what kind of role will he have. If you were doing a bunch of lineups, it would make sense to have a dart throw in there with Forsett and hope to hit a bullseye in a GPP. He provides similar salary relief as other top options but will be WAYYYYYYYY lower owned.
Browns (17.8) @ Bengals (27.75)2 elite plays
Browns and Bengals Game Script
Bills (23.2) @ Dolphins (20.75)2 elite plays
Bills @ Dolphins Game Script
Raiders (23.5) @ Jaguars (25)1 elite play
Raiders at Jaguars Game Script
Colts (22.5) @ Titans (25)2 elite plays
Colts @ Tans Game Script
Ravens (20.2) @ Jets (21.25)2 elite plays
Ravens at Jets Game Script
Mike Wallace (if Flacco plays)
4 PM Games
Chargers (23.2) @ Falcons (29.75)3 elie plays
Chargers at Falcons Game Script
Bucs (24.5) @ 49ers (22.5)2 elite Plays
Bucs at 49ers Game Script
Patriots (26.2) @ Steelers (19.25)2 elite plays
Patriots at Steelers Game Script
Fade Antonio Brown
Sunday Night Football
Seahawks (20.8) @ Cardinals (22.75)in progress